Republican’s Will Soon Control The Executive & Legislative Branches…Are Trifecta’s Unusual?
This article contains only historical facts & no political bias.
A trifecta is a horse betting term which refers to a successful bet on the first 3 finishers that place in that exact order.
The recently completed November election produced an unexpected change of the majority party in both the Senate and the Presidency and a continuation of the majority party in the House of Representatives creating a federal government trifecta. In this current case, the Republican party controls both the Executive and Legislative branches of our 3 legged federal government structure, the 3rd leg being the non-elected Judicial branch.
In this article I’m going to address 2 questions. How unusual is this situation? And what are the ramifications of this lack of party balance?
Depending on the mobile device used for viewing this article, the following Wikipedia chart could be difficult to both read and interpret, but it does an excellent job of answering question #1. Here are a few tips for how to understand the chart.
· Blue = Democrats; Red = Republicans
· The chart timeline begins with the 1854 founding of the Republican Party; The Democratic Party already existed.
· Top of the graph = Senate; Middle sliver = President; Bottom = House of Representatives
· Each vertical block = 2 years (1 session of the Congress)
The chart reveals, for many readers, the surprising frequency of government trifectas. The longest trifectas were 14 years which occurred once for each party. The Republicans accomplished it from 1897 to 1911, and the Democrats did the same from 1932 to 1946. Today, this span of one-party dominance is unimaginable.
Since 1951, there have been 8 government trifectas covering a total of 28 total years during this 75 year period. That represents 37% of this period.
The most recent occurred with Democrats holding control from January 2021 to January 2023. Due to the Democrats single-party legislative dominance stretching astonishingly non-stop from 1955 to 1981, it’s not surprising that 6 or 75% of the government trifectas were controlled by the Democrats.
The answer to question #1 is federal government trifectas are not an unusual occurrence and have undoubtedly favored the Democrats over the past 75 years.
That leads me to question #2 regarding the ramifications of the political power imbalance inherent with a trifecta. Opponents make their case that slowing the process of passing controversial legislation allows for more bipartisan input while supporters favor the lack of gridlock.
The passage of the Social Security Act and many other 1930’s depression related laws represent great examples for the efficiency argument. However, the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which was covered in the 1995’s best seller, Alien Nation: Common Sense About America’s Immigration Disaster which details why a trifecta doesn’t necessarily produce great results.
The passage of the Affordable Care Act (i.e. Obamacare) exemplifies a more recent case in point that was enacted during a trifecta as was Trump’s large tax cut bill and Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act all of which might demonstrate examples where bipartisanism might have provided a better result.
It’s no secret that the Republicans plan to get out of the blocks quickly, but their advantage could last for a mere 2 years if the mid-term elections flip either legislative chamber.
So, how unusual is this situation? It’s not. And what are the ramifications of this lack of bipartisn balance? Mixed.
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