Issue No8: The World Needs to Quickly Stop Using Fossil Fuels….Not So Fast!
This is NOT an article making any claims about the presence or lack there-of global warming. Rather, it’s focus is on the pace and energy producing options being pursued. And, I have never been employed or consulted with any fossil fuel companies.
I published a previous article in this series in March 2022 that explored the global importance of plastics, but this is article covers different ground.
Plastic is a ubiquitous and critically important material that is produced using fossil fuels. It is highly versatile, lightweight and can be very durable versus other materials such as any metal or glass product. It adds tremendous value in many large global industries including aerospace, construction, electrical and electronic applications, communications equipment, packaging, energy generation (solar panels, wind turbines), furniture, marine (virtually all recreational hulls are fossil fuel-based), medical and healthcare, apparel, toys, entertainment products, military equipment, and automotive.
Single-use plastic products are the target for the most rabid negativism about plastic due to it’s impact on the environment. However, replacing these products using another material at scale isn’t going to happen soon or if ever. I’m going to return to this subject later to discuss solutions, but it’s both naive and illogical to treat all plastic products monolithicly.
As you’ll see, the overwhelming majority of plastic tonnage produces long lasting durable products used everyday for countless important activities. It’s not the enemy.
This graph illustrates the projected stratospheric global growth by major country for the next 40 years by a very credible source.
The following chart provides an illustration of the diversity of product applications, all of which are rapidly growing. The wide variety of applications also supports why it’s such a popular choice by producers globally.
Let’s breakdown the importance of plastic compared to other materials in packaging. The following chart indicates that plastics represent roughly 37% of all US packaging applications. Importantly note that Rigid Plastic represent roughly 70% of all plastic packaging, but it’s just one of seven sectors. The packaging sector only accounts for 25% of all plastic production. And the single-use plastic share represents a tiny share of total production .
The poster child for plastic opponents are plastic bottles and grocery bags, which are part of the Flexible Plastic segment on the chart below. Also included in Flexible Plastic are film wraps that keeps food of all types safer and more conveniently transported/stored and sheeting, an important component in residential/commercial construction. Garbage bags provide a convenient and sanitary solution for waste disposal.
So, a small amount of the plastic packaging segment which represents only 25% of all plastic production has been inappropriately dubbed the poster child for the entire industry.
The automotive industry is an excellent example of both the benefits and our global dependency on plastic. Virtually every component pictured below is fossil fuel-based and was intentionally chosen by the manufacturer for its comparatively lower cost, durability and light weight, which in turn lowers the vehicle weight and correspondingly increases the vehicles fuel efficiency.
Ditto for this interior. The door panels, seating, dashboard, sun visors, flooring materials, rubber seals and center console are all produced from fossil fuels. Most of the metal looking finishes are plastic as well.
Tires are neccessities in the automotive, trucking and aviation industries, as well as, many other industrial machine applications. Tire technology is complex because of the inherent safety and performance requirements needed in each of the distinct user markets, as well as climate variations in different global regions. Crude oil is the principal raw material in synthetic rubber. Approximately 70% of all rubber used today is synthetic. According to the Rubber Manufacturers Association, roughly 7 gallons of oil is required to make each tire. Roughly 2.7 billion tires were produced in 2022, which required roughly 19 billion gallons of oil. Unit tire volume is forecasted to continue growing at roughly 3–4% annually. Fossil fuel is currently irreplaceable in these industries. Every electric vehicle (EV) is constructed using the same materials.
I recently discovered that roughly half of the material used to construct a typical commercial jet uses a wide variety of plastics. This trend is accelerating both because of the fuel savings due the lightweight advantages and new innovations in plastic technology. I toured Boeing’s Everett, Washington factory, the largest building by volume in the world. They build a variety of aircraft here including the 777x, their newest family of jets. They feature composite material including carbon laminate/sandwich and fiberglass all of which are 95% and 100% produced with fossil fuel. This illustration provides you with a good overview of the application of plastic in this family of jets.
Here’s a view of the fiberglass nose section of the fuselage.
I’ve addressed the endless applications and benefits of plastics. As I mentioned earlier, there is however the issue of the handling of what the industry describes as “mis-managed” single-use plastic waste. This is a serious global issue and environmental groups; government and the plastic industry have long been working on effective solutions. As the chart below illustrates, the largest source of global waste is Asia and China specifically. In total, they contribute roughly +80% of this mis-managed waste.
Unfortunately, the poorer the local region, there’s a higher likelihood of minimal infrastructure designed to manage this issue. Like all things affecting the planet, every country must look inward for serious solutions. But, this issue should’t spillover negatively to plastics in general because it’s not the material that’s at fault.
Ocean Cleanup, a relatively new Netherlands based non-profit company, saw its largest trash extraction in August 2023 by removing 25,000 pounds from the Great Pacific Garbage Patch on just their 3rd deployment. Their goal is to remove 90% of floating plastic from the oceans and rivers by 2040. Their newest ship has roughly 3 times the collection capacity and has just been launched. According to the company, they recycle most of the collected debris into durable plastic products.
But, appropriate waste management, product re-use and effective recycling are the best solutions for most of the single-use products. In the US most people think that of the 7 plastic groups, only No1 and No2 designated products are recyclable, but that’s an over-simplification. No5 (Polypropylene) is very recyclable but has historically been deemed unacceptable due primarily to machine limitations at many Material Recovery Facilities (MRF). This is where your recyclables are sorted for sale to companies that re-manufacturer it into new products. That machinery obstacle is being resolved at many MRF’s allowing No5 products to be added to your recycling bin. Check with your local collection company. The MRF industry is making great progress in this area. And, that’s not all!
Many of the No4 coded products are 100% recyclable, but can’t be added to your curbside recycling bin because they constantly jam up the sorting machines at the MRF causing costly maintenance down time. All stretchable plastic bags, packing envelopes and sheeting can be dropped at your local supermarket, home center or Walmart collection centers usually at the front of the store.
So, where does the collected materials go? They are baled at the store and shipped back to their distribution center where they are sold to re-manufacturers like the decking/outdoor furniture company Trex who uses 95% recycled material to produce their products and has been doing so since 2007.
In 2022, they used 431 million pounds of recycled plastic.
There’s many others long lasting durable products converting to recycled materials such as carpeting, railroad ties and flexible/solid drainage piping to name a few. They can also always be recycled to make new versions of the original product. Major global brands have recently announced impressive goals to convert to using a substantial amount of recycled resin in their products including Adida and Coca-Cola. For Instance, the latter has set an aggressive goal of using recycled material at least 50% of its packaging by 2030.
Similar to No4 products, styrofoam (No6) is accepted at some of the same stores noted above. It's also noteworthy that styrofoam (expanded polystyrene) is 95% air. Check with your local retailers.
One other important development is the increased capital support coming from both the EPA and state governments to accelerate new equipment purchases at the MRF’s to facilitate broader collection of all of the above mentioned plastic types. Many of America’s active landfills are running out of capacity, which is creating a new national urgency getting behind recycling.
The number of municipal landfills in the USA has fallen by more than nearly 80% since 1990:
According to the the EPA Facts & Figures Report, industry’s most comprehensive commentary on recycling, only 9% of all plastic generated was recycled according to their last report in 2018. But, No1 and No2 plastics had a much higher rate at roughly 3.5 times the overall rate. There’s a lot of room for improvement, but there are many positive developments in process.
In summary, plastics are here to stay. They will continue to morph into new applications as we have witnessed many times over the last 70 years due it’s intrinsic benefits including low cost, durability, design flexibility, light weight and broad accessibility. And, more products will be designed from their origin to utilize recycled materials.
Oil and natural gas are essential to being able to produce it. As I’ve mentioned in previous issues, access to domestic sources is critical for both cost assurance and national security. Again, fossil fuels are essential for our future and harassing fossil fuel producers isn’t productive and demonstrates incredible naiveté or ignorance.
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